CME Scoreboard
Prediction for CME (2025-01-22T11:36:00-CME-001)
CME Observed Time: 2025-01-22T11:36ZiSWAS Layout URL: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/CME/36567/-1
CME Note: Wide, messy CME seen to the southwest in SOHO LASCO C2/C3 and to the southeast in STEREO A COR2. Source is a large eruption from the southwest quadrant of the disk, from the large Active Region 13961 which was centered at S10W28 at the time of the eruption. Dimming starting at 2025-01-22T10:43Z extends from S10-S50 and from W10-W40 as seen in SDO AIA 193. Opening field lines and ejecta can be seen in SDO AIA 171 and SDO AIA 304, respectively. It is possible that two small filaments lifted off in this eruption, however, there is filamentary material visible/reformed after the eruption. An M1.3 flare from AR 13961 with peak time 2025-01-22T11:08Z is associated with this event. This CME visually overlaps with the far-sided CME:2025-01-22T08:36Z.
CME was not detected at Earth.
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
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Predicted Arrival Time: 2025-01-26T08:16Z
Prediction Method: CMEFM v.0.1
Prediction Method Note:
Time of Launch: 2025/01/22 11:25Z Plane of Sky 1: 19:25Z; 31.5Rsun; SSW Direction Plane of Sky 2: 23:25Z; 31.5Rsun; NNE Direction POS Difference: 4:00 POS Midpoint: 21:25Z TOL/Midpoint Difference: 10:00 Numeric View/Impact Type: 1 POS Difference Resulted Value: ~9.29 Travel Time: ~9.29 * 10:00 = 92:51 Predicted L1 Arrival: 2025-01-26T08:16Z Notes: Coronagraph Imagery Quality: 1/5 Method Update: https://www.desmos.com/calculator/nfk166mjdh *** This second prediction is an experiment. The impact type is changed from 3 (expected bulk impact) to 1 (expected glancing blow). The other parameters remain unchanged. Forecast Creation Time: 2025/01/25 18:47ZLead Time: 13.40 hour(s)
Difference: -----
Prediction submitted by Garrett Imhoff (Other) on 2025-01-25T18:52Z
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